West Midlands

Posted by on June 15, 2015 in Electoral Boundaries | 0 comments

 

Current seats Entitlement Change
Herefordshire 2 1.77
Worcestershire 6 5.59
Shropshire 5 4.56 -1
Staffordshire 12 11.07 -1
Warwickshire 6 5.48 -1
West Midlands 28 24.88 -3
Birmingham 10 9.20 -1
Black Country 13 10.77 -2
WEST MIDLANDS 59 53 -6

 

  • Staffordshire loses a whole constituency.
  • The West Midlands metro area loses three seats – two in the Black Country and one in Birmingham.
  • There will probably be a cross-county seat between Shropshire and Herefordshire, with those combined counties dropping one seat.
  • There will probably be a straddle seat between Warwickshire and Worcestershire, the combined counties dropping one. However, the Boundary Commission last time round proposed some innovative and strange crossings of the border between Warwickshire and the West Midlands and could do so again, so that it can produce constituencies to the right size in the Birmingham and Coventry areas. It may therefore propose something more radical than this model.

 

Three Conservatives go into two in the combination of Shropshire and Herefordshire – The Wrekin (Mark Pritchard), Ludlow (Philip Dunne) and Bill Wiggin (North Herefordshire).

The review could be ugly for Labour in the Potteries. One possibility would trim the four Stoke and Newcastle seats down to three, with Tristram Hunt in the middle of the sandwich. Another option might create seats the Tories could  (Stoke-on-Trent South) and should (Newcastle under Lyme) win by adding Conservative-voting territory.

In the West Midlands metro area there are too many permutations to model for the moment, but it looks as if a seat would vanish near Wolverhampton (probably South East, with Labour’s Pat Macfadden made homeless) and one in Dudley/ Sandwell, quite possibly Halesowen & Rowley Regis (James Morris, Conservative).

It seems probable that a Conservative seat will disappear in Warwickshire/ Worcestershire, with three seats (Stratford-on-Avon, Mid Worcestershire and Kenilworth & Southam) going down to two, but the knock-on effects will make Nuneaton, Rugby, Redditch and Warwick & Leamington all more Tory than they are currently, so they may consider it fair exchange although the three most affected MPs (Nadhim Zahawi, Nigel Huddleston and Jeremy Wright) may beg to differ.

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