Posted by on June 15, 2015 in Electoral Boundaries | 0 comments

The 11 Welsh losses would be difficult to manage. They are spread throughout Wales, with no areas being spared from a radical reduction in numbers.

The Lib Dems would probably manage to retain a seat based on their current Ceredigion.

Of the Conservative seats, Gower and Cardiff North are surrounded by Labour territory and any boundary changes are likely to harm their Tory incumbents. Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb will be thrown into competition with his neighbour Simon Hart as there is room for only one Pembrokeshire seat.

In North Wales the Plaid Cymru seat of Arfon will probably go.

The cluster of three Conservative seats in north Wales (Aberconwy, Clwyd West and now Vale of Clwyd) will be slimmed down to two. This could be an interesting contest, because Aberconwy MP Guto Bebb and Clwyd West MP David Jones (ex Welsh Secretary) do not seem to have the most harmonious relationship.

But this leaves Labour suffering six of the 11 losses, with some new and unfamiliar seats being created in the Valleys in particular. Welsh Labour is quite adept at in-fighting, and there will be many opportunities to indulge this interest in the radically altered constituencies both in the south Wales valleys and in the smaller cluster of seats around Wrexham and Flint in the north east.

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