South East England
|SOUTH EAST (not IoW)||83||81||-2|
|Isle of Wight||1||2||+1|
- One seat clearly disappears in Hampshire.
- It is most likely that the other seat to go will be in Kent, with the most obvious solution being a cross-border seat between Kent and East Sussex.
- Oxfordshire is very close to the limit for 6 constituencies. It may well be that it needs to ‘export’ some of its electors to Berkshire and that a disruptive set of changes will ensue; Buckinghamshire and Surrey may also be affected.
Both Milton Keynes seats are too big. It may be that the BCE decides to shift them both north a little, with the result that North becomes more Conservative and South could be considerably improved from Labour’s point of view.
Most of the Hampshire seats are a little small and there are no obvious candidates for abolition – possibly the newly created (2010) seat of Meon Valley might get squeezed from all sides and George Hollingbery (a government whip) would be sent in search of a safer berth. Most of the Hampshire Tories in that area are fairly newly elected – Damian Hinds, Alan Mak, Steve Brine, Suella Fernandes, Ranil Jayawardena – and this could be a bit of a struggle.
Both Southampton seats are undersized – while there is almost certainly one Labour seat in the city, it is possible that for instance the Conservative position in newly-gained Southampton Itchen may be strengthened, or Labour’s hold on Test weakened.
David Cameron’s seat at Witney could well escape unchanged.
East Sussex has two seats lost fairly narrowly by the Lib Dems in 2015. While Eastbourne is likely to be unchanged, the existing Lewes seat will be radically altered, probably wrecking their chances of regaining it.
Brighton Kemptown is likely to be altered in ways that favour the Conservatives, although probably not to put it beyond Labour’s reach in a good year.