Northern Ireland loses two seats. The four Belfast seats are all significantly short of the quota, making a cumulative shortfall from the quota of around 50,000 electors. The Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland has in the past preserved four seats in Belfast by expanding them all outwards, avoiding upsetting the balance, but that might not be feasible this time. Probably a seat goes from both the east and the west of the province. There could be a tough contest in an enlarged Fermanagh & South Tyrone between new UUP MP Tom Elliott and one of the Sinn Fein incumbent MPs (either from West Tyrone or Mid Ulster).