- Cumbria loses a whole constituency.
- Merseyside loses two constituencies, one on each side of the Mersey (the Wirral goes down from 4 to 3).
- It looks to me as if Lancashire loses two seats and Cheshire one seat, with Greater Manchester dropping one seat and having two straddle seats on each side (in the Cheshire commuter belt and in east Lancashire).
- There are many possible permutations of the constituencies in the densely populated area around Manchester and Liverpool.
The Conservatives could clean up in the Cumbria boundary changes. Carlisle would get another 10-15,000 mostly Tory voters, Barrow could be flipped narrowly to the Conservatives and the two Labour seats of Copeland and Workington reduced to one (Jamie Reed v Sue Hayman). Tim Farron’s fortress of Westmorland & Lonsdale might be altered enough to endanger it.
In north Lancashire the straggly seat of Wyre & Preston North could be broken up (bad for its Tory MP Ben Wallace but it would probably enable the creation of two safe-ish Conservative seats to replace Labour marginal Lancaster & Fleetwood and Tory marginal Blackpool North & Cleveleys). It is harder to make out what the changes further south in Lancashire may involve.
It seems possible that Frank Field and Alison McGovern may be thrown into conflict (perhaps Field might choose to retire) for a possible spliced seat based on Wirral South and Birkenhead. John Pugh’s Lib Dem seat in Southport would probably be sunk by the addition of about 10,000 electors either from Formby or from Tory West Lancashire villages. A Labour seat would probably vanish in the Liverpool area.
In Greater Manchester the most likely place for a seat to vanish is in the Stockport/ Tameside area – possibly Denton & Reddish (Andrew Gwynne, Labour) might be the victim. It seems unlikely that the Conservatives could hold a new expanded version of their gain of Bolton West.
In Cheshire the most likely candidate for the chop is the Tory-held marginal seat of Weaver Vale. Labour’s new City of Chester seat, gained by 93 votes, would probably be flipped back to the Tories.