East of England
- One seat clearly disappears in Essex.
- It would seem likely that there will be a seat that is half Cambridgeshire, half Norfolk, with the overall allocation for the two counties being unchanged.
- The other seat may disappear in Hertfordshire, with bits of Hertfordshire being used to bulk out constituencies based on Bedfordshire on one side and Essex on the other.
Essex may end up being radically altered because of the overall loss of one and a half seats. The seat most likely to disappear is Witham (it was only created in 2010), and that would send Priti Patel in search of a new seat (and hoping that one of Bernard Jenkin or John Whittingdale might retire).
It is hard to tell where the other seat might disappear; it is possible that Grant Shapps’s seat (Welwyn Hatfield) might be disbanded, or that Peter Lilley’s Hitchin & Harpenden might get the chop (I’d guess the latter).
The Conservatives will probably benefit from detailed changes to marginal seats:
- Harlow, Bedford, Stevenage, Great Yarmouth and Norwich North will be bulked out with some additional Tory villages
- One of the Labour seats in Luton might be rendered winnable for the Tories
- On the other hand, Cambridge probably gets a bit better for Labour, as does Watford.
- It is possible, depending on the detail, that highly marginal Peterborough could be tilted significantly to Labour, and that a more friendly set of boundaries could help Labour’s distant prospects in Basildon.
- Norman Lamb’s Lib Dem seat in North Norfolk may be altered and his majority reduced or overturned – he might lose territory to Great Yarmouth and gain it from Broadland.