- Derbyshire loses a whole seat.
- Nottinghamshire probably loses a whole seat.
- The other seat disappears from Northamptonshire, with some of Northamptonshire being used to bulk out a south Leicestershire constituency.
There will probably be radical change in mid Derbyshire – the constituencies of Derby North, Amber Valley, Erewash and Mid Derbyshire – with four Conservative MPs fighting for three constituencies. The straggly Mid Derbyshire constituency is likely to be the one with no recognisable successor, to the displeasure of its MP Pauline Latham who will be thrown into a battle with three colleagues.
Nottinghamshire is more complicated. Either Anna Soubry’s Conservative-held marginal in Broxtowe could be radically (and unfavourably) altered for her, or possibly two Labour front benchers Vernon Coaker (Gedling) and Chris Leslie (Nottingham East) could be competing for one safe seat.
In Leicestershire and Northamptonshire there are some interesting possibilities. Liz Kendall’s seat of Leicester West is small and will require alteration. If it pushes further into the city centre and the other Leicester seats move out a bit, no worries for Kendall – but if West is the seat that is made to extend further out into the suburbs it could become vulnerable to the Conservatives. That would be quite a decapitation.
The vanishing seat is likely to involve some sort of mash-up between South Leicestershire, Harborough and Daventry, pitting three Tories against each other (Edward Garnier, Chris Heaton Harris, and Alberto Costa) for two seats.
The Northampton seats are both very small. Northampton North is likely to be improved a bit for Labour, but South probably wrecked from the Labour point of view.