The 2013 local elections in key constituencies

The 2013 local elections in key constituencies

This short paper for the Fabian Society, based on data, examines how the marginal constituencies which will decide the next General Election voted in the 2013 local elections. The 2013 elections took place for the most part in the least Labour-inclined parts of England. They were disproportionately southern and rural, and as well as being areas of traditional Labour weakness they are also – on the evidence of the local elections in 2011 and 2012 – where Labour’s recovery since 2010 has been weakest. The sample of marginal seats available is therefore going to produce a more pessimistic picture for Labour than a set of local elections like 2012 which were mostly in urban areas and represented the northern metropolises, even if no votes had shifted. Even in southern England, the areas where Labour is most powerful and best-organised – Reading, Southampton and Plymouth for instance – usually had a break from local elections this year. While Labour scored a respectable number of gains of councillors (291) since the 2009 drubbing, and took power in Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire, its share of the vote was a lot lower than in 2012 and some of the county-level and electoral division level results were disappointing. Adding up the votes in the key parliamentary constituencies (see Appendix for the necessary health warnings about this exercise) shows a similarly mixed pattern. The paper breaks the Labour performances down into four loose groups: the best, the adequate, the disappointing and the...

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The Bradford Earthquake

The Bradford Earthquake

Following the March 2012 by-election in Bradford West, which resulted in a dramatic gain for George Galloway of Respect, the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust commissioned a report from me to analyse what happened. The task was to explain the result and its implications for political parties and campaigners of all parties. The report is divided into four sections – the context of the election, the campaign, the local elections of May 2012 and the overall meaning of the political changes in Bradford. Key findings The corrosion of the established political parties in Bradford West The recent political history of Bradford West has been marred by patronage, neglect, bad organisation and even electoral fraud. Both Labour and the Conservatives are implicated in this state of affairs. Local politics in Bradford has been about mutual accommodation between elites of each community (‘Asians’, city whites and suburbanites) rather than real diversity, and voters have found this alienating. ‘Biraderi’ (clan-based loyalty) has in the past offered parties an apparently easy mechanism to amass block votes, but the price that parties (Labour and Conservative) have paid has been higher than they anticipated and ultimately led to disaster, particularly when combined with a lack of local political organisation and discussion. Bradford Labour in particular needs to absorb the lessons of the election and change itself radically; the same may apply in other apparently ‘safe’ seats where local politics is weak. There is a danger of a political vacuum developing in the city and elsewhere which may be filled by fringe politics, despair or violence. As with some other by-elections in which huge shifts of votes have taken place, voters in Bradford West do not feel they have deserted their usual party but that Labour has failed them and that there has been an option available that better reflects the real values of the party. The local roots of Respect Galloway could not have won without a locally-generated upsurge of political activity; the energy of the Respect campaign came largely from local soil and was not a product of a centrally driven party strategy. That upsurge would probably not have happened had the local Labour Party succeeded over the years in first serving as a suitable channel for political activity in Bradford West, and second in running a selection process that commanded the confidence and support of party members and the broader community. The Bradford Respect campaign itself compares with other protest movements such as Occupy in its self-conception and in its free-form organisational style. Campaign techniques In terms of campaigning methods there was no revolution, merely a positive rational ‘reboot’ conducted by Respect of traditional techniques in a modern setting. Bradford’s political parties have been held...

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